Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Could, would Google buy the New York Times?

Well, here's something to chew on: the suggestion that it might make sense for Google to buy the New York Times. Of course it depends on the Sulzberger family being willing to sell, but the website RealClearMarkets publishes a persuasive argument why it would be a good deal for everyone, particularly as Rupert Murdoch is intent on eating the Times' lunch with his newly acquired Wall Street Journal.
At some point here in the near future, the market capitalization of the New York Times will fall below $2 billion. At that point, a psychological floor will have collapsed and the company will be in play.

The company that has the most to gain from buying the New York Times is Google. If it proffered a Murdoch-like, no-auction bid of $4 billion, wouldn't the Sulzberger family have to accept it? Every single class B shareholder would accept the offer. It's their only exit. It is also likely that Times employees and retirees would enthusiastically support the deal; it's their only exit as well. So it would all come down to whether the Sulzberger family (smaller in number and not as far-flung as the fractious Bancroft clan that owned Dow Jones) would accept the deal.
(This may all be self-interested market speculation, intended to give aid to the short sellers. But I've never seen the argument put so clearly and starkly.)

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